Recent escalations between North and South Korea have left outside observers concerned that a return to full-fledged hostilities between the nations may be on the horizon.
Apparent breakthroughs were achieved between the two nations during the 2017-2022 South Korean presidency of liberal Moon Jae-in, which seemed to suggest that a peace settlement could be possible in the still ongoing war between the nations. Nonetheless, an uptick in divisive rhetoric and divisive action has instead made an open outbreak in hostilities increasingly possible. North Korea’s disregard for international law and international norms and the inability of nations to ensure compliance by force creates serious concern for peace in Korea, as well as worldwide, in an increasingly multipolar international system.
In late May, amidst the tension surrounding the failed launch of a North Korean military reconnaissance satellite and the flying of anti-North Korean propaganda leaflets by South Korean activists, North Korea undertook a deeply unusual escalatory action of a kind far different from the usual insults, propaganda campaigns, and weapon testing.
North Korea began launching hundreds of balloons filled with trash and manure over the border, with the balloons landing deep into South Korea, and debris being found as far south as Seoul and the central South Chungcheong province.
South Korea’s presidential national security council responded by suspending the 2018 inter-Korean Comprehensive Military Agreement which had been intended to lessen the chance of hostilities on the frontline. The cessation of the agreement allows South Korea to once again engage in its own propaganda campaigns and potentially hold live fire military drills on the border with the North.
This uptick in tension does not come out of the blue, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has taken a much more hardline approach on Kim Jong Un’s North Korea than his liberal predecessor, resulting in renewed and growing hostilities between the nations over the past few years. In November 2023, in a similar series of tit for tat escalations, the launch of a North Korean spy satellite caused South Korea to suspend part of the aforementioned Comprehensive Military Agreement, and resume frontline aerial surveillance. In what could be seen as a disproportionate response, Kim Jong Un scrapped the deal entirely, planning to reinstate and resume the military actions prohibited by the agreement.
This January, in a speech in the Supreme People’s Assembly, Kim Jong Un declared South Korea to be his nation’s “primary foe and invariable principal enemy”, and dismantled all organizations tasked with bringing about Korean reunification. This outlook is a stark and divisive departure from traditional North Korean rhetoric regarding reunification, and perhaps heralds levels of violence not seen for more than half a century. In a report by 38 North, a publication which offers in depth reporting on North Korean matters, describes the situation as “more dangerous than it has been at any time since early June 1950”, the immediate period before the outbreak of the Korean War. The report claims that Kim Jong Un has made the strategic decision to go to war, with the current danger of conflict far surpassing the “typical bluster” from North Korea, and Kim Jong Un’s constant threats of violence being more serious than ever before.
As such, though it may be easy to dismiss the North Korean balloon campaigns and the now resumed South Korean loudspeaker campaigns as a continuation of the same largely tense but non-violent state of affairs which have characterized North-South relations over recent years, they may be a deeply insidious sign of things to come. This fear was further vindicated when on June 9th around 20 North Korean soldiers crossed over the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) into South Korea before immediately returning back over the border following warning shots and verbal warnings by the South Korean military.
North Korea’s consistent repudiation of international law, as well as its willingness to entirely scrap its own agreements is a portent of doom for the supposed “rules based order” which has characterized international relations over previous decades. As the world becomes increasingly multipolar, more nations may adopt a similar position on the world stage to the hermit kingdom. The difficulties of attempting to engage in treaties and diplomacy with such a nation is illustrated in an article in the Yale Journal of International Law during the 2018 period of thawed tensions between the Koreas. In the article, clearly influenced by the relatively positive trend in relations during the period, a potential peace treaty between the nations is considered. The authors and legal consultants to the journal Jonathan Worboys and Laura Edwards conclude that though such an arrangement would likely have an enormous impact on stability in the region, force could not be used in the event of a treaty breach. This act of military retaliation in such a situation is prohibited under Article 2 Section 4 of the United Nations Charter, which stipulates that UN member states cannot use force against another state such that their territorial integrity or political independence is violated.
As the norms of international law are increasingly flouted from Russia to North Korea, and international law continues to have no meaningful incentive structure to prevent such violations, the norms of the international community may increasingly collapse.
War in Korea and elsewhere may be closer than expected, with no meaningful chance of de-escalation and reconciliation. The relative peace achieved from 2017-2022 is increasingly a distant memory, and the possibility of a bloodless resolution seems more and more unlikely.
Photo credit: Yann Adobe Stock Dec 2021